Expectation of Fed ra上海乌托邦s an over-reaction

Herd instinct is the human nature to follow the crowd and act collectively – and market expectation always does not change smoothly but t

上海乌托邦ends to over-react to new information. The current market expectation of the US Federal Reserve’s rate cuts is a case in point.

On June 20, the latest meeting of the Fed’s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee shrugged off the market’s high expectation of rate cuts and gave no clear policy signal confirming a cut.

We believe the market had overreacted in forming its expectation of rate cuts after the Fed swiftly adopted a dovish tone from the end of last上海乌托邦

year. Specifically, we believe market expectation – it has formed since May – of a change in policy stance, as well as the timing and degree of rate cuts, may not fully materialize.

We will elaborate on this now. It should be noted the misconceived expectation of Fed rate cuts could ind上海乌托邦

uce a drastic reversal in investor sentiment and asset price fluctuations, if the Fed’s moves miss expectation.

Firstly, the market may have overestimated the degree of the Fed’s policy stance change. A clear rate cut signal may not emerge until the end of this month.上海乌托邦

According to Bloomberg, the Fed funds futures market has recently priced in a 98.5-percent chance that the Fed will lower rates at least once this year.

上海乌托邦品茶微信However, the Fed’s earlier forward guidance only indicated the end of monetary policy n

ormalization, which does not necessarily point to the beginning of a rate cut cycle. Also, the Fed h

as removed the word “patient” from the latest FOMC meeting statement but did not confirm a rate-cut stance.

We believe that because of the following two reasons, the Fed is still on cautious lookout, and t

here will not be any clear rate cut signal or plan until the next FOMC meeting at the end of this month.上海乌托邦品茶微信

Externally, the Fed is expected to stand pat until trade dispute uncertainties ease, to give itself an advantage in its game with the US Administration.

The Fed would put itself in an unfavorable position if it initiated a rate cut before majo上海乌托邦品茶微信

r uncertainties over the China-US trade dispute are removed, because the pre-emptive move may enc

ourage the US Administration to escalate the trade dispute, which will in turn pose a dilemma to the Fed.

That’s because any escalation in trade tensions will, on the one hand, d

ssipate and even offset the easing boost from rate cuts and force the Fed to accelerate the上海乌托邦品茶微信

rate cut pace. On the other hand, the escalation could further fuel imported inflation, which will significantly reduce the

Fed’s room for rate cuts. The Fed will then face a policy-making dilemma of whether to further cut rates.

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Last year, Moutai achieved whole-year sales revenu

ue of 75 billion yuan, up 23 percent year-on-year. Its net profit totaled 34 billion yuan, jumping 25 percent over the previous year, its earnings report said.

上海千花网This year, Moutai aims to achieve sales revenue of 100 billion yuan, growing 14 p

ercent year-on-year, and reaching a net profit of 45 billion yuan. The company said it is strong and confident enough to drive further growth.

上海千花网”The stock market now shows a prominent problem of polarization. Leading

上海千花网上海品茶white-horse stocks have seen continued steady growth. The climbing share price of Mout

ai definitely gave a boost to many white-horse stocks, with the prices of several stocks reaching their new high, while some ot上海千花网

her themed stocks are being marginalized,” said Yang Delong, chief economist at the Shenzhen-based First Seafront Fund.

Market demand for liquor products will likely remain strong, and major spirit makers a

上海千花网上海品茶re expected to witness more steady and structural growth and continue to remain competitive, Zhongtai Securities said in its report.

As the sun sets and the temperatures begin to cool, the evening heats up as night markets start to boom, especially during holidays and festivals.上海千花网上海品茶

The nighttime economy means people can dine, shop and enjoy entertainment at night.上海千花网

Some cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Jinan have published policies to support and promote the nighttime economy.

China’s electric car startup NIO recalled 4,803 ES8 vehicles, about one-third of the company’s first batch for delivery, Beijing Youth Daily reported on Friday.

The company also promised to compensate all property losses caused by accidents due to battery quality上海千花网上海品茶 according to law, the report said.

Starting from June 27, the company recalled the 4,803 ES8 electric vehicles with power battery packs manufactured between April 2, 2018, and Oct 19, 2018, a上海千花网上海品茶ccording to a notice from the State Administration for Market Regulation.

The power battery pack used in the vehicle within this recall range is equipped with a module of the specification model NEV-P50, which has the voltage sampling harness in an improper position, where it could cause a fire.

In 2018 the trade volume for food service at night increased 47 percent year-on-year,上海千花网上海品茶

which is 2 percentage points faster than the growth rate for food consumption during the day, accordin

g to statistics jointly issued by the China Tourism Academy and online consumption service provider Meituan Dianping.

www.ezgpui191.cn

About 57 percent of the respondents said they hop

 that instead of imposing ideas on their children, parents should learn more about what their ch

ildren want, according to the survey, which covered 1,953 unmarried young people.

According to Ling Zi, a marriage consultant, it does more harm than good for parents to be overly involved in children’s ma

rriages. “It shows the distrust of the parents, and transfers their anxiety to their children,” said Ling.

It has become common in China for pushy parents to look for spouses for their children who are too busy or slow in finding love, the paper said.

s the race to replace Theresa May as Conservative Party leader and British prime minister reach

es the final two candidates, China Daily looks at the candidates: Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt.

Johnson has long been one of the loudest voices supporting Brexit, a

nd had the backing of Donald Trump. Hunt is a converted Remain supporter.

After Conservative MPs narrowed 10 candidates down to the final tw

o, it is now up to party members nationwide to choose the next occupant of 10 Downing Street.

www.vnynui.cn

Earlier, the Kenyan gove上海会所品茶微信d revealed that th

medical personnel 上海会所品茶微信who were sent to Sierra Leone and Liberia in 2015 will man points of entry to detect Ebola

cases. The team that returned in June last year was part of the African Union mission in Ebola in West Africa.

Contingency plans

Contingency plans had long been put in place in Uganda for possible imported Ebola cases, according to WHO. The gov

ernment has vaccinated about 4,700 health workers in 165 health facilities, including the one where the dead boy was treated.

“This is a sobering development that everyone has been working to avoi

d and highlights the complexity of the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the

Congo,” Robert Redfield, director of the country’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a statement.

Redfield had issued a warning, a week ago, that the outbreak in the DR Congo could spread outside the country. He ad

ded that there was a risk of the current supply of vaccines running out before more is produced.

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ing addresses the 1上海会所女神会所 Council of Heads of

President calls 上海会所女神会所on members to support regional links to Belt and Road Initiative

Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should follow the trend of economic globalization and

build the SCO into a community with a shared future, President Xi Jinping said on Friday.

Xi made the remark while delivering a speech at the 19th

meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan’s capital.

SCO members should promote the multilateral trading system, buil

d an open global economy and put forward more policies to facilitate trade and investment, he said.

Xi proposed making full use of cooperation platforms such as the China Intern

ational Import Expo to promote the openness, exchanges and integration of regional economies.

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emier Li Keqiang presides over a State Council meeting

上海乌托邦女神会所 Premier Li Keqiang called for greater strides in reform and opening-up to stimulate market v

itality and to transform and upgrade economic structure in revitalizing the rust belt in Northeast China.

Li’s remarks came as he presided over a State Council meeting on Thursday on revitalizing the country’s traditional industrial bases.

He underscored the importance of transforming government functions

and bettering the business environment, and urged government departments to offer

more support to provinces in the Northeast in streamlining administration.

The tax cuts and fee reduction policies must be implemented in full, an

d the country will make the region a priority in special transfer payments to localities, he said.

The reform of State-owned enterprises must be moved forw

ard, and more work must be done to expand the private sector, he said.

www.changjiangjiaoxiang.cn

While many people doubt whether Mo could top the s

success of winning the Nobel Prize in Literature in 2012, Zhang Qinghua, professor at Beijing Normal University, believes that Mo’s way of dealing with this h

as been to make a return to his hometown, a village in Gaomi, Shandong province, both in reality and spiritually.

Mo didn’t publish any new work in the five years following the award, when in 2017 he

released several short stories, poems and theater works, mainly reminiscing about his hometown.

Unlike Mo’s former novels, Peking University professor Chen Xiaoming notes th

at his new works are more reserved, realistic stylistically and employ more simple language. Literary cri

tic Li Jingze is impressed that Mo has remained acutely sensitive to the realities of urban and rural life.

www.qianpadbe.com

Terracotta Warriors begin tour of duty at Australian museum

Eight life-size Terracotta Warriors from China are among the works sho

wn as part of a rare exhibition being hosted by the National Gallery of Victoria in Melbourne.

The exhibition, Terracotta Warriors: Guardians of Immortality/Cai Guo-Qiang: The Transient Landscape, runs from May 24 to Oct 13.

It offers a new perspective on China’s traditional culture with more than 160 exhibits

on show, including the Qin emperor’s Terracotta Warriors, which were discovered in 1974 in China’s nor

thwestern Shaanxi province, and are widely described as one of the wonders of the world.

The exhibition features eight warriors and two life-size horses from the im

perial army, as well as two half-size replicas of bronze chariots, each drawn by four horses.

www.117xe.cn

China’s Qomolangma climbing season runs from April 10 t

At least four deaths have been blamed on crowding during the climbs, Agence France-Presse reported.

People should be well prepared to handle Qomolangma’s traffic jams which are common phenomena along climbing paths, said alpinists who had reached the summit.

“Although the news about the jam on Qomolangma this year has gone viral, people should understand that it happens every year during the brief cl

imbing window. Knowing what to do when climbers jam the narrow paths should be incl

uded in their training well in advance,” said Ma Liyamu, who reached the top of Qomolangma, the world’s ta

llest mountain at 8,848 meters, on May 22 and was also held up by the crowds on her descent.

She is the leader of a mountaineering team of three Chinese women w

ho scaled Qomolangma. They launched their expedition from Nepal, which issued 381 cli

mbing permits for the season that concludes this week. Nepal’s permits this season cost $11,000 each.

gzbbcl.com

The huge domestic consumer market in China will dige

est most of the unsalable exports, and many of China’s exports will also shift to other foreign markets. The US will continu

e to purchase China-made goods if there are no substitutes, but US consumers will need to pay more, Guo said.

Research released by the International Monetary Fund on Friday showed that some of these tariffs have

been passed on to US consumers, while others have been absorbed by importers leading to lower profit margins.

US restrictions on high-tech exports to China will push up Washington’s trade deficit with China, and

rising prices could also reverse the low inflation in the US. Meanwhile, any speculative trading on the Chin

ese currency amid its depreciation pressure will “inevitably suffer from a huge loss”, Guo said in his speech.

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